When Giants Fall: Review

Like his previous work, Financial Armageddon, Michael J. Panzner’s When Giants Fall provides a brief but surprisingly comprehensive picture of our unfolding economic catastrophe.

It’s also a curious book, not easy to categorize. Panzner perspective is that of long-time veteran of stock, bond and currency markets, but he is wise enough to see that one can’t describe the financial mechanisms of the meltdown without looking deeply at the political, social and individual ramifications of what is going on. To put it another way, if you’re looking for quick investments tips on (as Panzner himself joked in a recent interview) “how to make a killing in a world gone to hell” you’ve come to the wrong place.

In fact, in spite of the quote on the book jacket which reads “for those enlightened few who understand what is really going on and what will likely happen next, the chaotic years ahead may well represent a singular opportunity” the book itself provides no such easy answers. There are many suggestions of what to avoid: stocks, bonds, most real estate. But as to what will do well at any given point, the only good answer is likely to be: “it depends.”

At the heart of the book is the observation that for myriad reasons the United States is rapidly losing its place as the world singular superpower—from resource constraints to debt at all levels, to a collapsing dollar. This doesn’t mean that competitors like Russia and China will have an easy go of things. “While the United States may be the main loser, it won’t be alone,” Panzner writes. “The rest of the world will also be wracked by what is likely to be a long and debilitating malaise.”

Unlike some financial doomsayers, Panzer grasps the implications of resource limits to growth as well. While he is agnostic about the idea of a near-term peak in oil, he recognizes growing demand for oil in the developing world will very likely suck up any new capacity that could come on line.

This is not a small distinction; differing scenarios for the rate and timing of global oil decline versus the simple inability to keep up with demand make for drastically different outcomes. But Panzner is right to be cautious about predictions.

It seems increasingly clear that we have entered an era when the predictions—even of those who were correct up to now—are diverging. The problem is that even for those of us who understand the broad outlines of what is happening, getting the ever-crucial details right in the moment will continue to prove challenging if not impossible.

In that sense, When Giants Fall is a highly enlightening portrait of how things may fall out, and an invaluable tool for scenario planning. Does it have all the answers? Of course not; nobody does.

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