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About the Author

  • City of the Future is authored by Lakis Polycarpou

    I am a freelance writer who is interested in the intersection of urban planning, architecture, technology, food, economics, energy and environmental issues. For the last several years I have been researching and writing about the implications of global peak oil.

    My work on these topics has been published in Energy Bulletin, Next American City, The Believer Magazine and The Washington Post among other places.

    I am also the Vice President of a new small press and Permaculture design company, KP Press Books/KP Permaculture.

    I can be reached at neapolis@earthlink.net or at lakis@kppressbooks.com

« The Earth Does Not Respond to Incentives | Main | The Travesty of Amtrak »

September 23, 2005

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Congratulations! You're the first - if not the only - reviewer to "get it". There are 48.7 ironic moments in the documentary. The End of Suburbia is ALL about irony.

I love _The End of Suburbia_ and enjoyed your review. The film has sparked many wonderful discussions and some great creative design work in the urban studies and planning courses I teach at the University of Pennsylvania.

There's only one big point where my take on the urban and suburban implications of peak oil diverges from Kunstler's.

I believe the sprawling sitcom suburbs and exurbs on the metropolitan fringe will suffer for all the reasons cited in the film and more (while denser urban and suburban places well served by transit will fare better in many ways).

However, the average North American McMansion dweller in the sprawling suburbs seems in a far better position to adapt to shifts in global and local energy, economies, and food supply than many, if not most people in the continent's cities.

Most McMansion dwellers have enough assets to pay for solar, geothermal, insulation and other existing technologies to take their homes off the grid.

Of course, McMansion dwellers would seem best off if they have professional services jobs that can be done from home.

And if one's McMansion happens to be in a region with a decent growing season and the household can get its act together to grow some of its food, then it can address at least part of its food supply challenge. If the front yard faces south, by all means replace the grass with vegetables and fruit - tell the teenagers organic gardening is hip and getting hipper.

Meanwhile, the people who will be worst off, as always, will be the poor who lack access to capital, land, and jobs close to home.

This past winter, low income heating and energy assistance programs expanded throughout the nation. They will need to expand a great deal more - if not be totally revolutionized or reinvented - to meet the challenges of the near future.

As the poor are pushed off of "vacant" lots and community gardens in Los Angeles, New York, and other cities, low-wealth inner-city communities' capacity to address the food supply issues of peak oil diminishes. (The rural poor may fare much better in this regard.)

Energy justice promises to become the next great issue of social, economic, and environmental justice.

Adding futher irony to the end of metropolitan life as we know it, poor people living in the Bronx, South Chicago, East St. Louis, North Philadelphia, and Oakland will continue to live in dense neighborhoods well served by transit, often in the vicinity of vacant lots... yet their communities are the least prepared and worst positioned to cope with the urban and economic impacts of peak oil.

Hi Domenic,

Thanks for your response.

"Meanwhile, the people who will be worst off, as always, will be the poor who lack access to capital, land, and jobs close to home."

I couldn't agree more with this statement.

As far as it goes, Kunstler is almost as pessimistic about big cities as he is about the suburbs, especially those which have a preponderance of skyscrapers. I asked him about this in an interview I did with him for The Believer Magazine last November; his response was that you can’t exactly heat those buildings with space heaters.

On the other hand, I wonder if you underestimate the strain that very high oil prices will put on even wealth exurban communities. Certainly there are many high-income people there, but how many of them are so highly leveraged that they cannot afford to lose their jobs and keep their homes, even for a short time? Take the recent sharp rise in foreclosure rates as an example. So much seems to depend on economic factors. People are fond of believing that telecommuting service jobs will provide an advantage, but how many of those jobs will continue to exist? And if someone can telecommute from the suburbs, why not pay someone a fifth the salary to do the same job in India?

As for the rural poor, Toby Hemmenway has some interesting reflections on this (http://www.patternliteracy.com/urban.html) subject. He points out that during the Great Depression, urban dwellers did better than rural farmers.

None of this is to argue that the urban poor will be in great shape either. In fact, even if cities do end up being more viable places to live, it’s not hard to see an pattern of intensifying gentrification with the poor pushed into less viable living situations.

Kunstler believes that small towns with nearby agriculture will be the most viable, and he may be right. There may also be significant regional factors to consider as well . . .

Congratulations on your work teaching and writing about urban planning; I would be very interested in reading some of your work and corresponding with you in the future.

Lakis

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